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  • Ohioblog: A Swing State Journal





    Saturday, October 16, 2004

    Indicators from the lands of Wall Street and Oz 

    Tired of the usual polls? Ohioblog is, too. So today, take a break and direct your attention to other presidential race indicators. John Dorfman reports on the Dow Jones ndustrial Average indicator as developed by James Stack, a market pundit from Whitefish, Mont., which is somewhat removed from Wall Street. Stack has found that in 24 of 26 U.S. presidential elections since 1900 the incumbent party has won when the market has risen in the two months prior to the election and lost when it has fallen. The market is down. So Sen John Kerry is up. Then there was Steve Cull's mention on NPR's Weekend Edition Saturday of a Zogby International survey in 2000 and repeated this year. John Zogby asked people that if they lived in the Land of Oz, who would they rather have as president: The Tin Man (all brain, no heart) or the Scarecrow (all heart, no brain). In 2000, the response was a tie, both getting 46.2 percent of the vote. This year, the Tin Man led by 10 percentage points. You can draw your own conclusions as to which of the current candidates is the Tin Man and which the Scarecrow.

    posted by Ohioblog: A Swing State Journal at 10:44 AM



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